The global campaign against HIV and AIDS has reached a precarious turning point. After decades of extraordinary progress that saved millions of lives and sharply curtailed new infections and AIDS-related deaths, momentum to eliminate AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 is faltering, raising alarms that these hard-won gains could unravel.
A recent report from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) presents a complex picture. Although the world has seen its lowest levels of new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in over 30 years, it is no longer on track to meet the ambitious goal of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.
The report estimates that in 2025, there were one million more new HIV infections and 400,000 additional AIDS-related deaths than if global targets had been met.
Since 2010, global efforts have yielded significant results. New HIV infections have dropped 42 percent worldwide, with sub-Saharan Africa experiencing an even steeper decline of 59 percent. This region, still home to roughly half of all new infections, has benefited greatly from expanded prevention and treatment programs.
One of the most notable successes has been the prevention of mother-to-child transmission. New infections among children have fallen by 69 percent since 2010, with an estimated 93,000 children newly infected in 2025. Programs aimed at preventing vertical transmission have spared nearly 4.8 million children from infection between 2000 and 2025.
AIDS-related deaths have also plummeted. The annual death toll dropped from 1.3 million in 2010 to about 570,000 in 2025, a 57 percent decline. Deaths among women aged 15 and older were cut by more than half, while male deaths also saw significant reductions.
Despite these advances, UNAIDS warns the death toll remains unacceptably high for a disease that is preventable.
Tuberculosis remains the leading cause of death among people living with HIV. In 2024 alone, an estimated 150,000 people with HIV died from TB-related illnesses, although this figure represents a 76 percent decrease since 2010.
Experts attribute these gains to sustained international cooperation and increased investment. Since 2010, funding for HIV programs in low- and middle-income countries has risen by 20 percent, reaching $17.6 billion in 2025.
Yet the funding still falls $4.3 billion short of the estimated $21.9 billion needed annually by 2030. More troubling, external funding for HIV programs dropped 18 percent in 2025, leaving many countries struggling to maintain essential services.
The consequences of these cuts are already evident, particularly in HIV prevention efforts across sub-Saharan Africa.
Several countries reported stark declines in access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a medication that significantly lowers the risk of HIV infection.
Condom procurement has also been severely hit. One major donor-supported program saw financial backing for condom distribution fall by 93 percent, while funding for initiatives promoting supportive laws, policies, and access to prevention services dropped by 80 percent.
HIV testing services have not been spared, with testing rates declining 22 percent in countries with high HIV prevalence.
UNAIDS underscores that HIV prevention remains heavily reliant on international donor support. In sub-Saharan Africa, donor funding accounted for 83 percent of prevention financing in 2024. Overall, HIV prevention made up only 11 percent of total HIV spending in low- and middle-income countries, with two-thirds of that coming from external sources.
The report warns the international HIV response faces one of its most uncertain periods in decades. Alongside shrinking financial support, many countries are seeing reduced civic space and increasing attacks on human rights, complicating efforts to reach vulnerable populations disproportionately affected by HIV.
Funding disruptions have already undermined prevention, testing, and community-led programs essential for connecting people with healthcare services. Governments have been forced to redirect scarce domestic resources just to sustain life-saving treatment programs.
UNAIDS cautions that the full impact of the 2025 funding cuts may only become clear in the years ahead as countries struggle to rebuild HIV programs with fewer resources.
Despite these challenges, the agency insists that ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 remains within reach. Success, it says, will demand renewed political leadership, increased domestic investment, and stronger international solidarity.
Without decisive action, the report warns, the world risks a resurgence of the HIV epidemic, threatening decades of progress and putting millions of lives at risk. The decisions governments and development partners make today will determine whether ending AIDS by 2030 becomes a historic public health victory or a missed opportunity.