The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning: El Niño is developing in the Pacific Ocean, and the world needs to brace for its arrival.
This is not just any El Niño. The latest updates reveal an unprecedented surge in Pacific Ocean temperatures, with subsurface waters registering more than 6°C above normal. The WMO’s forecast shows an 80 to 90 percent chance that this El Niño event will unfold between June and August 2026, persisting well into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27. This signals a looming climate disruption that experts say could exacerbate the already perilous trajectory of global warming, sparking extreme weather events worldwide and pushing global temperatures to new, dangerous highs.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres underscored the severity of the situation in a recent statement. “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 percent certainty,” Guterres said, emphasizing that this phenomenon will “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.” He called for urgent preparedness, warning that the combined effects of El Niño and climate change could unleash devastating floods, droughts, and wildfires across continents. This is a clarion call from the highest levels of global governance to treat El Niño not as a routine weather cycle but as an urgent climate crisis demanding immediate action.
El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, has long been known to disrupt weather patterns globally. But this year’s developing event is particularly alarming due to its strength and timing. The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update revealed that Pacific sea surface temperatures are rising rapidly, driving shifts in atmospheric circulation that will affect rainfall, temperature, and storm patterns far beyond the tropics. The heat anomaly beneath the surface signals a strong El Niño, potentially rivaling the most intense events recorded in recent history, such as those in 1982-83 and 2015-16.
Historically, strong El Niño events have been linked to sharp spikes in global average temperatures. The last very strong El Niño in 2015-16 coincided with record-breaking warmth worldwide. Now, experts warn that this El Niño could push 2026 into the ranks of the hottest years ever recorded. The UK Met Office, in a report released by the WMO, projects an 86 percent chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record. Given that 2024 already marked a new high in global temperatures, the arrival of El Niño during an era of unprecedented greenhouse gas concentrations could amplify warming to dangerous new levels.
Scientists explain that the interplay between El Niño and global warming is particularly worrisome. Greenhouse gases have warmed the atmosphere and oceans, making the climate system increasingly sensitive to natural variability. A study highlighted by Inside Climate News points out that global warming amplifies the impacts associated with super El Niños, making the climate system more prone to extreme responses. The warming of the tropical Pacific’s upper ocean layers intensifies El Niño’s effects, causing more severe heatwaves, droughts, and flooding than in past decades. This synergy spells trouble for vulnerable ecosystems, agricultural productivity, and human health across the globe.
The atmospheric consequences of El Niño are far-reaching. By altering the distribution of heat and wind across the Pacific, El Niño changes rainfall patterns for months and seasons. Regions like Southeast Asia, Australia, and parts of Africa often experience drought during El Niño years, while the western coast of the Americas can face heavy rainfall and flooding. These shifts disrupt food production, water availability, and biodiversity. With climate change already increasing baseline temperatures and rainfall variability, the stakes for communities worldwide could not be higher.
One of the most concerning aspects of this emerging El Niño is the potential for extreme weather disasters to compound ongoing crises. The UN Secretary-General’s warning highlighted the risk of “floods, droughts, fires, and extreme heat” becoming more frequent and intense. These events threaten to overwhelm disaster response capacities and exacerbate humanitarian challenges, especially in developing countries with limited resources. The call for global preparedness is as much about immediate emergency planning as it is about long-term climate resilience and adaptation.
The economic fallout from a strong El Niño cannot be overstated. Past events have triggered billions in losses due to crop failures, infrastructure damage, and health emergencies. With global supply chains still recovering from pandemic disruptions and geopolitical tensions, a severe El Niño could further strain food security and commodity markets. The World Meteorological Organization and international partners are urging governments and businesses to integrate El Niño risk assessments into their planning processes, to mitigate impacts and protect vulnerable populations.
The scientific community is watching the evolving conditions closely, using advanced climate models and satellite data to refine forecasts. The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA estimates a greater than 80 percent chance that El Niño conditions will persist through the winter of 2026-27. This extended duration increases the likelihood of prolonged climate disruptions, underscoring the need for sustained vigilance and proactive measures across sectors.
As the world faces this dual challenge of natural climate variability and human-driven warming, the message from the WMO and the UN is clear: preparation is non-negotiable. This means ramping up early warning systems, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, and supporting vulnerable communities with the resources they need to withstand shocks. It also means accelerating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the underlying driver that makes El Niño’s impacts so perilous.
The coming months will be critical in shaping the global response to this emerging threat. The WMO’s updates will continue to track the development and intensity of El Niño, providing vital information to policymakers and the public. Meanwhile, António Guterres’ urgent appeal serves as a reminder that climate disasters are no longer distant possibilities—they are unfolding realities demanding immediate action. El Niño’s arrival in 2026 is a wake-up call that the climate crisis is accelerating, and the world must respond with unprecedented speed and solidarity.
For now, the Pacific Ocean’s warming waters are a glaring signal that the climate system is shifting. The question is whether humanity can rise to the challenge, deploying science, policy, and collective will to meet the crisis head-on. The stakes could not be higher, with the health of millions and the stability of the planet hanging in the balance. The time to prepare is now, before El Niño’s fury makes 2026 a year the world will never forget.