A powerful El Niño is gathering strength in the equatorial Pacific, and Africa is once again in its crosshairs. The emerging event, which federal forecasters say has a greater than 90 percent chance of becoming historically severe, threatens to split the continent’s weather fortunes: punishing drought and searing heat across the south, torrential rain and flooding across parts of the east.
For a continent where millions depend on rain-fed agriculture and where water infrastructure is already strained, the stakes are enormous. Harvests, water supplies, public health, energy generation and household budgets could all come under pressure – and the scientists sounding the alarm say there is no time to waste.
“Drought is a slow-onset hazard,” said Dr. Henno Havenga, a senior lecturer in climatology at North-West University in South Africa. “At first, we might not feel its effects, but it develops gradually, and that slow progression can catch us off guard.”
What the Forecasts Show
The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration paints a stark picture. El Niño conditions are strengthening, and the agency places the probability of an event exceeding the strength of any El Niño recorded since 1950 at 69 percent between October and December of this year.
El Niño develops when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm and the atmospheric circulation above it shifts. Those changes propagate outward through what climatologists call teleconnections, altering weather patterns far beyond the Pacific basin.
The term “super El Niño” has gained currency in recent coverage, but Dr. Havenga cautioned that it is not a formal scientific classification. “It describes an exceptionally strong El Niño event,” he said. The label, however informal, underscores a growing consensus: this event is on track to rank among the most powerful in the instrumental record.
Not Every Region Shares the Same Risk
A strong El Niño shifts the statistical odds, but it does not dictate the weather from one district to the next. “A very strong El Niño does not guarantee extreme conditions everywhere,” Dr. Havenga said. “Weather variability still plays a major role. It can, however, increase the likelihood or severity of some of the conditions normally associated with El Niño.”
For much of Southern Africa, those conditions mean reduced rainfall, drought and unusually high temperatures – a combination that compounds damage because heat accelerates evaporation and drives up the water demands of crops, livestock and people at precisely the moment supplies may be shrinking.
In parts of East Africa, the threat inverts. El Niño can bring above-normal rainfall, and with it the danger of flooded settlements, damaged roads and bridges, contaminated water supplies and displacement.
Even within a single country, the pattern may be erratic. Rain may arrive late, fall in the wrong places or come in short, destructive bursts rather than the well-timed, evenly distributed showers that crops require.
“The timing, distribution and intensity of rainfall can either amplify or offset the typical El Niño signal at a local level,” Dr. Havenga said.
Fields, Taps and Household Budgets
Agriculture sits at the front line of exposure, but the consequences will not stop at the farm gate. Poor harvests can reduce food availability, weaken rural incomes and push prices higher; effects that ripple outward through national economies.
International trade can help compensate for local crop failures, but it offers no panacea. Countries that turn to imports remain vulnerable to global commodity prices, exchange-rate swings, transport costs and disruptions to supply chains.
For small-scale and subsistence farmers, the risks are acute. “A commercial producer may have access to insurance, financing, irrigation or alternative markets,” Dr. Havenga said. “A small-scale or subsistence farmer may lose both the food needed by the household and the produce normally sold to generate an income.”
A single drought can thus become both a food crisis and an income crisis simultaneously. Communities that depend on local harvests and village markets may feel the effects long before national statistics capture the full damage.
Water security presents an equally urgent concern. Hot, dry weather drives up demand while shrinking the supply available in rivers, dams and boreholes. Dr. Havenga said local governments cannot afford to lose treated water through leaking and poorly maintained infrastructure during such a period.
“Reducing leaks and unnecessary losses from existing water infrastructure is one of the most practical interventions available to us,” he said. “At the same time, all users should be encouraged to use water sparingly as a general rule.”
Consequences beyond agriculture
An intense El Niño could strain health services, energy systems and ecosystems alike.
Extreme heat poses particular danger to outdoor workers, older adults, young children and people living with chronic illnesses. Drought may degrade drinking-water quality, sanitation and nutrition; floods can contaminate water sources and raise the risk of waterborne disease.
Countries that depend heavily on hydropower could face reduced electricity generation as reservoir levels decline – just as higher temperatures drive up demand for cooling.
Natural systems, too, will come under pressure. Drought can stunt vegetation growth, shrink wetlands and rivers, increase the likelihood of wildfires and force wildlife into competition for dwindling water and food.
“We cannot assume that every ecosystem will simply return to its previous state after a severe drought,” Dr. Havenga said. “However, reducing human pressures – including excessive water abstraction, land degradation and unnecessary habitat disturbance – can improve the ability of ecosystems to withstand and recover from the event.”
As is often the case during climate-related disasters, poorer communities are likely to be affected first and to take the longest to recover. They tend to have fewer savings, less secure access to food and water, and fewer options when crops fail, livestock die or prices rise.
The warning has arrived
Africa is not powerless in the face of El Niño. Forecasting has improved substantially, and governments can draw on their experience of previous droughts and floods. The danger lies in failing to act before the consequences become unavoidable.
Dr. Havenga urged farmers to review their planting plans, cultivar choices, water use, production targets and input expenditure in light of the increased risk. Expanding production on the assumption that good rains will arrive could leave already vulnerable producers dangerously exposed.
Governments and municipalities should repair water infrastructure, prepare food-security programs and ensure that disaster-response systems can be activated quickly. Financial assistance, agricultural support and drought-relief mechanisms should be designed before farmers and communities are already in distress.
“The advantage we have is that advance warning systems have allowed us to talk about this event since May,” Dr. Havenga said. “We should use that warning to reduce our exposure and prepare for the possibility of a difficult season, rather than waiting until the drought is already established.”
The science is clear. The signal is building. What remains uncertain is whether the warnings will be heeded in time.
