Botswana’s long reliance on diamonds has exposed a weakness in its economic model: the assumption that a scarce natural resource will always retain its value. As technology reshapes the way people define and produce precious commodities, the country faces urgent questions about diversification, competitiveness and the future of its mineral wealth.
The debate was revived by a claim from Marathon Fusion, a San Francisco-based startup, that it had converted mercury into gold. Co-founded by former SpaceX engineer Adam Rutkowski, the company announced the development on 21 October 2026. It has not yet released experimental data showing how much gold was produced, how the process works or what it would cost. The claim remains unverified and should be treated with caution.
Even so, it raises a broader question: what happens to commodities whose value depends in large part on scarcity? If technology makes it commercially viable to produce materials once considered rare, the assumptions that support their value could be shaken.
That question matters especially to Botswana, where diamonds have long been central to the economy, accounting for about 70% of exports and one-third of government revenue. Such concentration leaves the country vulnerable to shifts in global demand, changing consumer preferences and competition from alternatives.
The experience of De Beers’ laboratory-grown diamond business offers a clear example of how established markets can change. In 2018, the company launched Lightbox, a brand that sold laboratory-grown diamonds for about US$800 per carat. De Beers positioned the stones as affordable fashion accessories, rather than as substitutes for natural diamonds, which have traditionally commanded premium prices.
The company discontinued Lightbox in May 2025 after laboratory-grown diamond prices fell for an extended period, partly due to increased production by Chinese manufacturers. The episode showed how difficult it can be to defend premium prices when new technology and lower-cost production reshape an industry.
For Botswana, the implications are significant. Laboratory-grown diamonds have not erased demand for natural stones, but they have intensified competition and blurred the traditional link between scarcity and value. For a country so reliant on diamond exports, this is more than a temporary market disturbance. It may signal a deeper challenge to the industry that generates much of its revenue.
Production figures point to mounting pressure. Botswana’s diamond output fell from 17.9 million carats in 2024 to 15.1 million in 2025, a marked decline from 2023 levels. Meanwhile, mineral revenues for the 2025/26 financial year were projected to fall below half their historical annual average.
The downturn has heightened concerns about the country’s fiscal position. Lower mineral receipts limit the government’s ability to fund development programmes, public services and infrastructure. In March, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Botswana to BBB-, the lowest investment-grade rating, underscoring the economic risks of weaker mineral performance and growing fiscal strain.
In this context, Botswana Ash (Botash), the country’s soda ash producer, has increasingly featured in discussions about economic diversification. The company could broaden the country’s mineral base and create new export opportunities. But presenting soda ash as the next economic saviour would risk repeating the mistake of relying too heavily on diamonds: tying the country’s fortunes to another commodity shaped by international market forces.
The challenge is not simply to find a new mineral to replace diamonds. Botswana needs a more varied and resilient economy – one that expands manufacturing, services, technology, value-added production and private-sector participation instead of expecting another commodity to deliver sufficient foreign exchange and public revenue.
The changing market for precious commodities points to a simple lesson: scarcity alone cannot guarantee lasting value. Gold and diamonds are valuable because of several forces, including limited supply, consumer confidence, industrial demand, investor sentiment and the institutions that support their markets. Technology can weaken these foundations, especially when cheaper alternatives become commercially viable.
Botswana risks treating the diamond downturn as a temporary cycle when it may reflect a lasting shift in the global industry. Natural diamonds may retain their luxury appeal, but the growth of laboratory-grown alternatives could permanently change consumer behaviour, pricing and market dynamics.
There is also a question of governance. For decades, diamond revenues have helped fund public spending and shaped Botswana’s international economic reputation. Yet the country’s continued reliance on mineral income raises a difficult question: have successive diversification strategies done enough to transform the structure of the economy?
The growing interest in Botash is encouraging, but diversification cannot mean swapping diamonds for another extractive industry. Soda ash may offer real opportunities, but it remains exposed to price fluctuations, production costs, international competition and changes in industrial demand. Without investment in processing, downstream manufacturing and export competitiveness, its contribution to the wider economy may remain limited.
The unverified claim about producing gold from mercury also highlights the need to prepare for technological change. Botswana cannot afford to wait for established industries to weaken before responding. It needs to anticipate disruption, invest in research and development, and build businesses that create value beyond resource extraction.
Botswana’s future should not depend on whether diamonds retain their appeal or another mineral takes their place. Economic resilience will depend on the country’s ability to build wealth through innovation, productive industries, skilled workers and competitive businesses.
Natural resources can create wealth, but they cannot guarantee economic security indefinitely. Botswana must move beyond the belief that what is scarce today will remain valuable tomorrow.
