Botswana is in talks with Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote about securing fuel from his refinery, as the government seeks alternatives to traditional suppliers. A sharp rise in international oil prices has underscored the risks of relying on a narrow set of sources and transport routes.
Minister of Minerals and Energy Bogolo Kenewendo confirmed that the government had discussed potential supplies with Dangote, as well as with Angola and Ivory Coast. The talks are part of a wider effort to strengthen national fuel security. Botswana has not disclosed the volumes, prices or possible start date for any Dangote shipments.
The discussions could give Botswana another source of refined fuel. The country imports all its petroleum products: it has no domestic refinery and no proven crude oil reserves. It consumes about 1.3 billion litres of fuel a year, most of it supplied through South Africa. That dependence leaves the market vulnerable to disruptions along regional supply routes.
Kenewendo said the government wants to broaden its supplier base and avoid a repeat of fuel shortages. Plans include opening alternative import routes through Mozambique and Namibia, as well as expanding storage capacity to help the country withstand external shocks.
One possibility is a pipeline proposed by Dangote to carry petroleum products from a planned storage terminal at Namibia’s port of Walvis Bay. If developed, the project could create a new distribution corridor for Botswana and other regional markets. It would still need to clear regulatory and environmental reviews.
Botswana is also working with Oman’s OQ Trading. On October 9, the company delivered about 20 million litres of diesel to state-owned Botswana Oil Limited at Mozambique’s Port of Matola. The shipment was the first under agreements signed in November 2025 and expanded in April this year, during President Duma Boko’s visit to Muscat.
The government is weighing other options, too. Botswana is considering taking a stake of up to 30% in an Angolan refinery and buying petroleum products directly from Angola’s state-owned oil company, Sonangol. These moves could give the country more flexibility in choosing suppliers and negotiating commercial terms.
A crisis exposed the limits of current reserves
The diversification push gained urgency in March, when escalating conflict involving Iran threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil supplies. Brent crude climbed to $119.50 a barrel on March 9, while diesel prices nearly doubled, putting pressure on fuel-importing economies.
Botswana’s vulnerability became clear when the government reported on March 26 that strategic reserves could cover about 10.5 days of domestic demand. Commercial stocks provided another 24 days. Officials also said the National Petroleum Fund could no longer adequately shield consumers from rising pump prices.
In response, the government plans to raise state fuel-storage capacity to 152.5 million litres – enough to cover roughly 46 days of demand. Its longer-term goal is to build reserves for 102 days of consumption, following the development of a major depot at Tshele Hills.
Walvis Bay could become a regional supply hub
Dangote’s proposed role could connect Botswana to a large refining operation and a growing distribution network. His refinery near Lagos can process about 700,000 barrels of crude oil a day, making it a potential supplier of refined products to markets across the region.
Dangote Industries Namibia is seeking approval to build a terminal at Walvis Bay, with proposed storage capacity of about 1.6 million barrels of petrol and diesel. The facility is intended to serve Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe and southern parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The project remains in its early stages. A public consultation took place on September 23, but a full environmental assessment is still required before construction can begin.
In September, Dangote also outlined plans for a pipeline network spanning about 2,650 kilometres from Namibia into southern and central Africa. One proposed route would run through Botswana into South Africa; another would link Zimbabwe and Zambia with the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Such infrastructure could reduce Botswana’s reliance on road transport through neighbouring countries and make deliveries more dependable. Its viability, though, will depend on construction costs, financing, regulatory approvals, access agreements and the volume of fuel carried.
Investment ties add another dimension
Botswana’s relationship with Dangote extends beyond fuel procurement. The Botswana Stock Exchange was selected as the platform for southern African investors taking part in the initial public offering of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which closed on October 27.
The offer was made through depositary receipts issued by Access Bank Botswana, with pension funds among the investors targeted. The refinery sold about 4.1 billion new shares at ₦525 each, raising roughly ₦2.15 trillion, or about $1.58 billion. Nigerian investors alone placed orders equal to around three times the targeted allocation. Dangote retains an ownership stake of about 87%.
The fundraising and supply talks point to growing commercial ties between Botswana and the Nigerian conglomerate. For Botswana, though, the immediate test is whether new arrangements can secure reliable fuel at sustainable prices.
More suppliers could strengthen the country’s negotiating position, but that alone will not guarantee lower prices or steadier deliveries. The Walvis Bay terminal and pipeline still require approvals, financing and construction, and the government has yet to disclose the prices or volumes under discussion.
Botswana must also compare the full delivered cost of fuel from West Africa with existing supply options. Shipping, pipeline charges, storage and distribution all affect the final price. The key question is whether the new arrangements will bring measurable savings and dependable supply – or simply shift the country’s reliance from one source to another.
Clear targets for reserve coverage, supplier diversity and procurement costs would help the public assess progress. Any long-term infrastructure commitments should also demonstrate value for money. Until commercial terms are confirmed and alternative routes are operating, the Dangote negotiations remain a promising opportunity, not a guaranteed fix for Botswana’s fuel-security challenges.
