After years of decline, De Beers says natural-diamond prices have stabilized and begun to rise.
“In the last few months, we’ve seen the price stabilise and begin to grow,” chief executive Al Cook told China Global Television Network in Beijing. He attributed the shift to stronger demand in the United States and India, alongside shrinking supply as aging mines close and companies limit investment in new projects.
The improvement would be welcome for an industry facing weak Chinese demand, excess inventories, economic uncertainty and growing competition from cheaper laboratory-grown diamonds. It also raises a larger question for De Beers: Can the industry persuade younger consumers that a natural diamond is still worth its price?
Cook believes scarcity will help. He estimated that supply was falling by more than 10 percent as mines age and commercially viable discoveries become harder to find. Developing a major mine takes years, requires enormous investment and offers uncertain returns. De Beers has suspended new development at Gahcho Kué in Canada, underscoring the limited pipeline of new production.
Scarcity matters only if consumers still want natural diamonds. The United States remains the largest market for diamond jewelry, while India is gaining importance as its middle and affluent classes grow. Natural-diamond demand in India has reportedly risen about 11 percent over the past year. Global demand was broadly flat in 2025, but that followed three consecutive years of decline.
Still, stabilization is not the same as recovery. In the first half of 2026, De Beers’ average realized rough-diamond price fell 32 percent from a year earlier, from $155 to $105 a carat. The decline reflected both continued price weakness and the mix of diamonds sold. Even a modest increase would leave prices well below recent peaks.
The downturn spread throughout the supply chain. As consumer purchases slowed, jewelers and dealers accumulated excess stock. Cutters, many based in India, reduced production to avoid adding polished stones to an overcrowded market. Miners then faced weaker orders and responded with lower prices, postponed sales and more flexible terms. De Beers’ revenue fell to $2 billion in the first half of 2025, though later price reductions helped increase rough-diamond sales.
Laboratory-grown diamonds remain a major threat. They are chemically and physically diamonds but can be produced within weeks. Falling manufacturing costs allow consumers to buy larger stones for less, and analyst Paul Zimnisky expects laboratory-grown jewelry sales to keep expanding at double-digit annual rates. Younger buyers attracted by size, affordability or perceived environmental benefits now have an alternative that can stretch an engagement-ring budget much further.
De Beers has responded by emphasizing the differences between mined and manufactured stones. It presents natural diamonds as finite objects with traceable origins, long histories and better prospects for retaining value. Laboratory-grown diamonds, by contrast, are manufactured products whose prices may continue falling as production becomes cheaper.
Cook carried that message to China, telling CGTN that natural diamonds should be seen not only as luxury goods but also as objects capable of holding value. He argued that lower prices made this a good time to buy.
That claim requires caution. Most retail diamonds are not liquid investments. Resale prices can be far below store prices because of markups, grading, certification, fashion and the difficulty of finding buyers for individual stones. One 2026 market overview estimated that natural diamonds retain roughly 20 to 60 percent of their purchase price, depending on the stone and market conditions. A diamond may preserve emotional value across generations, but it does not behave like gold, bonds or publicly traded shares.
China remains critical to any sustained recovery. Once considered one of the diamond industry’s most promising markets, its slowdown created a gap that the United States and India could not immediately fill. Restoring demand will require more than lower prices. Chinese households remain cautious, while younger consumers can choose among jewelry, travel, technology, gold and laboratory-grown stones.
During Cook’s visit, industry and government representatives signed the Beijing Declaration on Natural Diamonds and Sustainable Development on Sept. 15. The agreement brought together the Shanghai Diamond Exchange, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and major industry participants. It called for closer cooperation across the supply chain while emphasizing sustainability, transparency and the economic contribution of diamond mining.
Those issues have real consequences in southern Africa. Diamond revenue supports jobs, government budgets, infrastructure and local businesses. Botswana owns 15 percent of De Beers, with Anglo American holding the remaining 85 percent. In 2025, Botswana and De Beers reinforced their partnership through a new 10-year sales agreement covering production from Debswana, their joint venture.
The stakes have increased as Anglo American seeks to sell De Beers. Private bidders and African governments, including Botswana, Namibia and Angola, have expressed interest. Any buyer would acquire valuable mines, a famous brand and a global retail operation, but also a company trying to restore pricing power while consumer attitudes toward diamonds are changing.
The Beijing Declaration is both a statement of principle and a commercial strategy. Its participants want consumers to connect diamond purchases with wages, tax revenue and development in southern Africa. They also want to distinguish mined stones from manufactured ones. Success will depend on credible tracing systems, environmental standards and evidence that mining wealth benefits producing communities.
Natural diamonds retain one advantage that cannot be manufactured: geological scarcity. Production cannot quickly increase when prices rise. Mines become deeper, ore grades decline, costs rise and deposits eventually run out. Major new discoveries are rare. If demand remains steady while output falls, prices should gain support.
Yet rarity has value only when people desire what is rare. For decades, the industry connected diamonds with love, marriage and permanence. Social customs are changing, and consumers now have more ways to express affection or status. Laboratory-grown stones also separate appearance from scarcity, offering the look of a large diamond without the cost of geological rarity. Natural-diamond producers must convince buyers that origin matters.
There are signs that the worst may be over. Inventories have fallen, Indian demand is growing, U.S. consumption remains resilient and mine closures are limiting supply. Cook’s report of rising prices may mark the beginning of a recovery, but it could also be a temporary pause after a steep decline. Weak Chinese demand, laboratory-grown competition and the financial damage of recent years remain serious challenges.
De Beers is selling more than diamonds. It is selling the belief that prices have reached their floor, natural rarity will regain value and consumers will rediscover the appeal of stones formed within the earth. Prices may finally be moving in its favor. Whether consumer desire follows will determine the industry’s future.
