Home » News » General » Khama, Masisi fall-out scares Batswana – Afrobarometer

Khama, Masisi fall-out scares Batswana – Afrobarometer

Publishing Date : 21 October, 2019

Author : KENNETH MOSEKIEMANG


Batswana worried about economic and political effects of falling-out between current and former presidents. A large majority of Batswana say they think the falling-out between President Dr Mokgweetsi Masisi and his predecessor, Lt Gen Dr Ian Khama, is likely to negatively affect the country’s economic and political stability, a new Afrobarometer survey shows.


Since a model transfer of power from the term-limited Khama to his deputy and hand-picked successor 18 months ahead of upcoming elections, the two have clashed dramatically over a number of policy changes proposed by Masisi. The dispute has dominated the country’s political and media landscapes, culminating in Khama’s dramatic exit from the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) in favour of a newly formed opposition party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF).


According to Afrobarometer findings more than three-fourths (78%) of Batswana “agree” or “strongly agree” that the dispute between the current president and his immediate predecessor is likely to affect the economic stability of the country. “Younger and better-educated citizens are more likely to see a negative effect on the country’s economy, but large majorities share this concern irrespective of locality, education, and age.” The study observes that even more respondents (83%) “agree” or “strongly agree” that this falling-out is likely to affect the political stability of the country.


Khama and Masisi are currently battling it out at the freedom squares with the former trying to woo his sympathisers away from the ruling BDP to his newly found BPF or at the least in favour of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC). Khama is telling those who attend his numerous rallies that he has one mission, “to correct his mistake by removing Masisi from the Presidency”. The Afrobarometer Survey has given BPF a 2% share to the popular vote and allotted 44% to the ruling BDP. UDC has been apportioned 22% of the popular vote way ahead of the recently formed Alliance for Progressives which has 3%. 11% of those interviewed refused to divulge their allegiance.


The 2019 UDC has a different composition to the 2014 UDC. The Botswana Movement for Democarcy (BMD) which was seen as catalytic in 2014 elections has since cracked and booted out of the Umbrella project and the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) has replaced it. It remains to be seen how the current UDC and the newly formed AP will perform in this election in terms of the number of Members of Parliament they will garner on Wednesday.

Afrobarometer surveys


Afrobarometer directs a pan-African, nonpartisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues in African countries. Seven rounds of surveys were completed in up to 38 countries between 1999 and 2018. Round 8 surveys in 2019/2020 are planned in at least 35 countries. Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative samples.
 

The Afrobarometer team in Botswana, led by Star Awards Pty LTD, interviewed 1,200 adult Batswana in July-August 2019. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Previous surveys were conducted in Botswana in 1999, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2019.

POPULER BRANDS